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U.S. heat pump shipments stayed strong in the first half of 2026 despite the expiration of the federal tax credit that offered up to $2,000 toward eligible installations. A Building Decarbonization Coalition report says shipments are on track to match or exceed the technology’s best year, but the final 2026 tally has not been reported.
U.S. heat pump shipments stayed strong in the first half of 2026 despite the expiration of a federal tax credit that had offered households up to $2,000 toward the equipment, according to a report from the Building Decarbonization Coalition. The nonprofit says shipment trends put the technology on track to match or exceed its best year, though the full-year result is not yet known.
The coalition’s report draws on shipment data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, a trade group representing most of the U.S. market, according to Canary Media’s account. Shipments are a measure of equipment moving through the market; they do not by themselves show how many systems were installed in homes or explain why customers chose them.
The federal 25C tax credit expired at the end of 2025, seven years earlier than the deadline set under the Biden administration, the source report says. The credit had reduced the price of qualifying heat pumps by as much as $2,000. The early-2026 shipment figures suggest that demand has not fallen sharply so far, but they do not establish that the lost incentive had no effect.
Heat pumps can provide both heating and cooling and can replace or reduce reliance on gas furnaces. The reported shipment strength comes as federal support for this and other household clean-energy technologies, including rooftop solar and batteries, has been withdrawn, according to Canary Media.
Shipments Continue Without the Credit
The early figures matter to households, installers and policymakers because they offer an initial indication of how the market is responding after a major federal discount ended. If shipments remain high through the year, that would suggest the credit was not the sole force supporting heat pump sales. It would not show that the credit was irrelevant: some customers may still have bought earlier because of it, and shipment totals cannot isolate the effect of its expiration.
For homeowners, the immediate change is that the former federal 25C reduction is no longer available for eligible purchases made after the credit expired. However, the source report notes that state and utility incentives remain available in some places. Availability and eligibility depend on location and program rules, so consumers should check current local terms rather than assume the federal credit still applies.
Steady shipments also matter to contractors and suppliers making decisions about staffing, equipment and inventory. The report is an encouraging market signal, but its forecast is not a final sales result and could change as the year progresses.
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Why Demand May Be Holding
The report points to several possible reasons heat pump purchases may continue despite the federal credit’s end. UC Berkeley business professor Lucas Davis has argued that factors such as geography, climate and electricity prices may shape adoption more strongly than subsidies. That is his explanation, not a finding proven by the shipment data in the report.
Davis also wrote that many households may have adopted heat pumps without knowing about the credit, or only learned of it later while filing taxes. Canary Media cited reports from heating and cooling contractors to industry publication ACHR News in which contractors said they were often the ones introducing the tax credit to customers. Those accounts suggest some buyers may not have treated the credit as a central reason to purchase.
Other factors described in the source include remaining local incentives, municipal policies encouraging households to move away from fossil fuels, and contractors’ growing familiarity with heat pumps. Together, these factors could support demand, but the available shipment figures do not quantify how much each one contributes.
““I suspect most households adopted heat pumps without ever knowing anything about the credit, or didn’t learn about the tax credit until months later when filing their taxes.””
— Lucas Davis, a business professor at the University of California, Berkeley, as quoted in his blog post
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What Shipment Data Cannot Show
The report provides an early view of equipment shipments, not a final count of household installations or a direct measure of consumer demand. The source material does not give a precise first-half shipment total, a detailed year-over-year comparison, or the best-year benchmark. The comparison basis and size of any change therefore cannot be independently expressed from the information provided.
It is also not yet clear how much the credit’s expiration affected purchases, whether customers shifted buying plans into late 2025, or how much state and utility programs are offsetting the lost federal support. The report’s outlook depends on shipments staying strong during the second half of 2026; it is not a guarantee that the year will set or match a record.
heat pump with heating and cooling
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Final 2026 Shipment Tally
The next key milestone is the complete 2026 shipment total, which will show whether the strong first-half pace continued. The source report calls for watching the final tally but does not provide a release date. Until then, the available data support a limited conclusion: heat pump shipments have held up so far after the federal credit ended, while the full-year market outcome and the credit’s specific effect remain unsettled.
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Key Questions
What happened to the federal heat pump tax credit?
The federal 25C credit expired at the end of 2025, according to the source report. It had reduced the price of qualifying heat pumps by up to $2,000.
Did heat pump shipments fall after the credit ended?
The report says shipments stayed strong in the first half of 2026. It does not provide enough detail here to quantify a year-over-year change or establish how shipments compared with a specific baseline.
Does strong shipment data prove the tax credit had no effect?
No. Shipments show equipment moving through the market, but they do not establish what buyers would have done if the credit had remained available or measure the credit’s effect on individual decisions.
Are heat pump incentives still available?
The source report says some state and utility incentives remain. Programs vary by location and eligibility, so households need to check the current rules where they live.
When will it be clear whether 2026 was a strong year?
The full-year shipment tally will provide a clearer picture. The report says the first-half pace could put heat pumps on track to match or exceed their best year, but the final result is still pending.
Source: rss
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